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010年上半年﹐歐洲的債務危機弄得投資者頭昏眼花。下半年它還會是關注的焦點嗎？如果7月份頭幾個交易日的情況可以說明什麼的話﹐那麼投資者已經擺脫了恐慌﹐但依然緊張不安。
看看本月以來歐洲的一些重要風險指標表現如何吧。
歐 洲的共同貨幣歐元是希臘債務危機及其對其他陷入困境的南歐經濟體不利影響的最大受害者之一。不過﹐分析人士和投資者真是搞不懂最近歐元兌美元的走勢。儘管 週四歐元走軟﹐歐元兌美元仍有1.2574美元﹐相比之下﹐6月底為1.2229美元。5月4日﹐歐元兌1.1917美元。
歐元的反彈表明歐洲的政治領導人已經在消除人們對歐元區解體的擔憂上取得了一些進展。
實 際上﹐2010年下半年開始﹐投資者給了歐洲各國政府喘息的機會﹐轉而擔心起全球經濟復蘇。有關美國經濟的一系列令人失望的報導甚至還幫助推高了陷入困境 的歐元。與此同時﹐歐盟對銀行業進行“壓力測試”的決定給了投資者希望：市場對銀行的擔心可能很快會減輕。繼希臘之後成為眾矢之的的西班牙本週和上週成功 地從債券市場籌集到了資金﹐緩解了人們對如何償還將於本月底到期的一筆巨額債務的擔憂。
和歐元一樣﹐英鎊兌美元也走強﹐從6月30日的兌 1.4939美元漲到1.5110美元。5月18日﹐英鎊兌美元曾低至1.4336美元。英國組建了一個有效的執政聯合政府﹐在英國巨額預算赤字上取得了 一定的進展﹐大大出乎唱反調的人士的意料。英國重要的AAA信用評級目前看起來是安全的。英國將成為下一個希臘的說法也不攻自破了。
結果是：一些分析人士開始談論未來幾個月主權債務危機將離開歐洲﹐轉到同樣有著巨額預算赤字的美國。
不過﹐不清楚歐洲的問題是否真能那麼快地煙消雲散。儘管歐元上漲﹐大部分外匯分析師仍表示不樂觀﹐一些分析師仍預計歐元會跌到兌1美元的程度。荷蘭銀行荷蘭國際集團(ING)的分析師們週三公佈了一份報告﹐說歐元區的解體仍有可能發生。
儘管歐洲的債券市場比幾個月之前的情形有所改善﹐卻仍承受著相當大的壓力。
隨 著上半年的結束﹐就算是法國等更強大的經濟體也開始令投資者擔心了。銀行變得對彼此放貸非常謹慎。歐洲貨幣市場的部分壓力如今開始減輕。據數據提供商 CMA DataVision的數據﹐希臘、西班牙、葡萄牙、意大利和愛爾蘭的債務保險成本較6月底有所降低。投資者開始討論購買陷入重重債務的歐洲國家發行的債 券的可能。
巴克萊資本(Barclays Capital)駐倫敦分析師沃星頓(Huw Worthington)說﹐人們或許開始感覺稍微舒服一點了﹐如今息差開始變得有吸引力了。
不過﹐仍沒有足夠的跡象顯示投資者的擔憂情緒實際上開始消除。沃星頓說﹐對歐洲的擔憂將會持續﹐不過消息層面上會有所好轉。
首先﹐南歐國家的借貸成本依然非常高。利用衍生品為這些國家債務保險的成本顯示出﹐投資者的擔憂情緒依然高漲。人們看起來是在等待希臘政府違約。
有 什麼可以扭轉形勢的嗎？本月底歐洲銀行業壓力測試的結果有望幫助理清歐洲的問題﹐就像美國的一樣。亞洲和美國好於預期的經濟增長數據有望驅散關於二次探底 的擔心﹐令投資者更相信歐洲所採取的嚴厲措施不會讓各經濟體開倒車。不過﹐如果在這些領域沒有好消息的話﹐再來一場市場動盪﹐仍有可能會令人們對歐洲此起 彼伏的違約的擔憂死灰復燃。
Neil Shah
Is End of Europe's Debt Crisis Near?
Europe's debt crisis sent investors spinning in the first half of 2010. Will it also dominate the headlines in the second half? If July's first few days of trading are any indication, investors are off panic-mode but remain very much on edge.
Take a look at how some key risk-o-meters in Europe have performed since the start of the month.
Europe's common currency, the euro, has been one of the biggest victims of Greece's debt crisis and its fallout on other struggling Southern European economies. These days, however, analysts and investors are scratching their heads over the currency's recent run against the U.S. dollar: The euro, which is down today, is nevertheless trading at $1.2574 compared with $1.2229 at the end of June. On May 4, one euro bought $1.1917.
The euro's bounce suggests Europe's political leaders have made some headway in warding off worries about a break-up of the euro currency area.
Indeed, investors kicked off the second half of 2010 by giving European governments a rest and worrying about the global economic recovery instead. A batch of disappointing reports on the U.S. economy even helped push the beleaguered euro higher. Meanwhile, the European Union's decision to 'stress-test' banks has given investors hope that market fears about banks may soon lessen. Spain, the market's latest punching bag after Greece, successfully raised cash from the bond markets both this week and last, easing concerns about a big debt repayment due at the end of this month.
Like the euro, the British pound has risen in value against the dollar to $1.5110 from $1.4939 on June 30. It was as low as $1.4336 on May 18. Britain has surprised naysayers by forming an effective ruling coalition government that has made progress on the country's big budget deficit. The U.K.'s important 'triple-A' credit rating looks safe for now. So much for the idea that Britain is the next Greece.
The result: Some analysts are talking about the sovereign-debt story moving away from Europe in the next few months and hitting the U.S., which also has a massive budget deficit.
But it's unclear whether Europe's troubles can really go away that fast. Despite the euro's gains, most currency analysts remain bearish, with some still expecting the currency to hit parity against the dollar. Analysts at Dutch bank ING put out a report today saying a euro-zone break-up remains a possible scenario.
And while Europe's bond markets are in better shape than they were a few months ago, they're still under considerable pressure.
As the first half of the year wound down, even stronger economies like France were starting to worry investors. Banks were growing very wary of lending to each other. Some of the pressures in European money markets are now easing. The cost to insure the debts of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland is lower than it was at the end of June, according to data provider CMA DataVision. Investors are talking about the possibility of buying bonds of highly-indebted European countries.
'People are probably feeling a little bit more comfortable,' says Huw Worthington, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London. 'The spreads are becoming attractive now.'
But there are still not enough signs that investor worries are actually going away. Worries about Europe are 'going to stay,' Mr. Worthington says, though the news-flow may improve.
For one thing, the borrowing costs of countries along Europe's southern fringe remain painfully high. The cost to insure their debts using derivatives suggests investor concern remains elevated. People seem to be waiting for a Greek government default.
What could turn things around? The results of Europe's bank stress tests at the end of this month could help draw a line under Europe's problems - as happened in the U.S. Stronger-than-expected readings of economic growth in Asia and the U.S. could dispel fears of a 'double-dip' and make investors more confident that austerity measures taken in Europe won't push economies into reverse. But without good news on these fronts, it's still very possible that another market flare-up could bring fears of rolling European defaults back to the fore.
Neil Shah
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