2010/09/14

The Independent──The Daily Cartoon

Tuesday 14 September 2010 
Tuesday 14 September 2010

近四萬前線警察「職位不保」

警察
裁減警力後,無可避免的犯罪率一定會上升。
代表英格蘭和威爾士警察的警察聯盟(Plice Federation)警告,如果聯合政府落實25%的預算削減的話,最多有將近四萬名前線警察的職位不保。

警察聯盟表示,裁減近四萬前線警察的職位將讓現行警務工作「無法繼續維持」。

警察聯盟表示,裁減警力後,無可避免的犯罪率一定會上升。

此前,漢普郡(Hampshire)警察宣佈,計劃裁減1400個職位,佔所有雇員的20%。

「擾亂民心」

英國警察和刑事司法(Policing and Criminal Justice)官員尼克·赫伯特(Nick Herbert)呼籲警察聯盟不要「擾亂社會民心」。

他說,「我們了解警察聯盟有他們自己的訴求,並希望保有每一個工作機會,但是我們必須小心謹慎,不能引起大眾恐慌。」

「警察部門也必須配合節省開支,可以更有效率的維持警力。」

赫伯特表示,各個警察部門可以分享資源,可以改善採購程序,發揮最大效益。
Source

大學缺錢 留學生「維繫生機」

學生人數越多,班級就越大。
學生人數越多,班級就越大。 


英國大學校長表示,缺錢的英國大學必須靠招收歐盟以外的海外學生來補貼數十億英鎊的財務漏洞。
代表英國大學校長的「英國大學」組織(Universities UK)表示,英國大學越來越依賴海外學生的學費。

英國大學組織表示,過去十年來,英國大學從海外學生所得的款項增長了將近20億英鎊。
在1990年代,海外學生的學費只佔英國大學收入的5%,但2008至09年學年度,海外學生學費佔英國大學收入的10%。

提高學費

由布朗勛爵(Lord Browne)領導的小組正在對英國大學經費進行評估檢討,檢討報告將在今年10月提出。

此刻正在召開年會的英國大學組織表示,如果政府不增加英國本土學生的學費的話,英國大學就必須更加地依賴其他經費來源。

英國大學開闢的其它財源包括招收更多的海外學生,為企業開發研究或與商業界聯合成立盈利公司,以及進行教育募款。

「提高英國本土和歐盟學生的學費上限,將為英國大學的財務減輕一點負擔。」

本土學生 vs. 海外學生

英國政府對每所英國大學能招收的英國本土和歐盟學生人數有一定的規定,大學如果超收學生將被罰款,政府還限制本學年度的學費不得超過3290英鎊的上限。

但是對於非歐盟的海外學生則沒有人數限制,英國各大學可以按照自己的情況招收,國際學生的學費也比英國本土和歐盟學生學費要高出很多,有時候甚至相處八倍。

雖然大學多招收海外學生不見得會擠壓到本土學生的名額,但是學生人數越多肯定代表班級越大,對教學設備和住宿的需求也更大。
Source

工會警告罷工潮即將來臨

英國報摘
英國工會反對削減公共領域的開支、經濟危機下的英美關係、中日釣魚島爭端都是周一英國報紙關注的重點。

英國工會不滿

英國工會聯合會召開年會。《每日電訊報》頭版報道,英國工會威脅舉行協調一致的罷工和反抗,增加對政府施加壓力,反對削減公共領域的開支。

關於工會準備發動更多罷工的消息,《獨立報》頭版刊登大紅背景的圖案,標題說:英國是否會迎來一個充滿不滿的冬天?《獨立報》報道說,大批英國工會代表將在年會上要求舉行工業行動,在今明兩年舉行罷工和抗議施加壓力。

《泰晤士報》頭版報道說,英國工會聯合會年會一開始,就傳出各工會威脅要組織罷工和街頭抗議的消息。

《衛 報》頭版報道說,英國工會將協調行動,舉行罷工和抗議,反對政府削減開支。報道說,英國政府削減開支總共會造成15萬公共領域就業減少。《衛報》另外一篇 報道說,工會領導人表示,要抵制英格蘭銀行行長在工會聯盟大會上發表講話,說英格蘭銀行行長在工會聯合會上不受歡迎。

英美特殊關係

《每日電訊報》頭版報道,美國奧巴馬政府的國防部警告說,英國大幅度削減國防開支可能會危及英美特殊關係。五角大樓官員在同英國官員私下交談中對英國削減軍費可能會拉大英美的軍事力量和開支的差距表示擔心。

報道說,來自美國的警告會對英國財政部削減國防開支形成壓力。北約國家根據協議都承諾至少將國內生產總值的2%用於國防。北約成員國當中除了美國以外,英國是少有的幾個滿足上述要求的成員國之一。

釣魚島爭端

英國工會聯合會召開年會
英國工會聯合會在曼徹斯特召開年會
《金 融時報》報道說北京同日本就釣魚島爭執正在升溫。報道說,中國外交最高主管官員周日警告日本不要對中國漁船在釣魚島水域同日本巡邏艇相撞事件做出錯誤的判 斷。中國國務委員戴秉國周五在推遲了同日本就有爭議海底油氣田的談判後發出警告。此前中國就釣魚島爭執短期內四次召見日本駐華大使。

中國深海探測

《國際先驅論壇報》頭版報道,中國在探測海底方面加大投入,計劃在這方面取得領先地位。報道說今年夏初3名中國的研究人員在南海潛入海底,他們在海底放置了中國國旗,但他們下潛的意義要大得多。
報道說,中國研究人員在一個一輛小型卡車大小的潛艇中下潛的深度超過了3000米,這表明北京有意在探索深海海底方面取得領先地位。海底蘊藏著豐富的石油和礦物資源,這些資源對中國經濟發展至關重要。許多海底資源都位於中國同鄰國有爭議的海域。
報道說,中國公開展示了這種叫做「蛟龍」的袖珍潛艇。「蛟龍」能夠下潛7000米深度,而此前居世界領先的日本潛水器「深海」的下潛深度為6500米。美國專家表示,鑒於中國在這個領域的經驗不多,中國的成就異乎尋常。

中美貨幣之爭

《金 融時報》報道說,人民幣爭執仍然會成為美國政界的爭論焦點。報道說,本周美國國會眾議院將舉行兩次有關的聽證。其中一次是質疑美國財政蓋特納。中國6月將 人民幣同美元脫鉤,緩解了美國國會對中國的貨幣政策的一些不滿。美國財政部在此前的兩次報告中,都沒有將中國列入貨幣操作國之列,也沒有因此受到國會過多 指責。

但自那以後,美國國會對中國貨幣政策改變緩慢十分不滿。人民幣對美元升值了不到1%,美國仍然認為人民幣幣值過低,北京也認識到美國的關注。

但這次美國國會要求人民幣升值的壓力來自美國民主黨核心人物,紐約州參議員查爾斯·舒默。舒默主導的提案要求評估中國人民幣幣值過低,以此為根據對中國進口施加緊急關稅。不過如果共和黨人阻撓該議案,舒默議案成為現實的機會也不大。

中國經濟擴張

《金融時報》發表分析文章談中國經濟週期,說中國大力在世界取得能源和原材料,使中國城市迅猛發展,並且發展同新型經濟體的貿易和投資關係,西方正為此付出代價。

分析文章側重談了中國同巴西的經貿關係。文章最後認為,中國同其他發展中國家增強關係在今後10年當中會促進中國和世界的經濟。新增加的貿易保護主義還沒有成為這個過程的障礙。但是北京需要加大努力,讓其他發展中國家確信中國經濟強大沒有威脅到他們。

《獨 立報》報道刊登了阿里巴巴創始人馬雲同加利福尼亞州長施瓦辛格擁抱的照片。報道說,中國的網絡巨頭正在努力趕超世界網售巨頭eBay。報道說,施瓦辛格從 練健美起家,而馬雲出身教師,兩人都取得了巨大成功。施瓦辛格的成功是「美國夢」的範例,美國駐華大使說,馬雲的成功是「中國夢」的典型。
Source

國際學生學費再度上漲

儘管學費一漲再漲,過去九年中,來英國上大學的外國學生幾乎翻了一翻。
儘管學費一漲再漲,過去九年中,來英國上大學的外國學生幾乎翻了一翻。
一項調查顯示,在英國,海外學生的學費去年一年上漲了5個百分點。
根據不同的課程,海外學生學費從8,500英鎊到32,000英鎊不等。英國大學校長團所做的年度調查顯示,學費在過去的十年至少增長了三分之一,有些課程的學費增幅甚至超過二分之一。

實驗室費用增長8
調查還顯示,只需在教室授課的本科課程相對來說比較便宜,每年的學費在8,500英鎊至11,700英鎊之間,平均費用為到9,300英鎊。

這個數字與2008年相比,增長了3個百分點。由於教學設備和儀器成本較高,學生需要在實驗室進行試驗來完成的課程相對昂貴。據統計,這類課程的學費從9,500英鎊至14,800英鎊不等,平均費用達11,500英鎊,比去年增長了8%。

醫學類課程最貴
英 國的授課式研究生課程通常只有一年。如不需要實驗室,這類課程的學費在9,000英鎊至13,200英鎊之間(漲幅為4.3%,均費為9,700英鎊)。 如需要實驗室,授課類研究生的學費則為10,300至16,000英鎊,平均費用為11,700英鎊,比去年增長6.4%。

研究式研究生課程的學費在9,200英鎊和12,100英鎊之間。實驗室課程的學費在10,400英鎊至14,300英鎊之間,平均達到11,900英鎊,增長了5.3個百分點。

比這些研究生更貴的是MBA類課程,學費在10,500英鎊和24,900英鎊之間。

據統計,最昂貴的課程要算臨床醫學類課程,牙醫課程尤為突出。醫學類授課式課程的平均費用就有24,500英鎊,最高甚至可以達到每年32,700英鎊。

而且切末忘記,這些數字僅為基本學費,學生還需要交付更多的費用來買書本和學習資料,以及去實地考察旅行,畢業典禮也有費用。

英國大學的口碑
雖然英國大學的學費上漲,這並未抵擋更多的國際學生來英求學的腳步。在2007年到2008年間,來英求學的非歐盟國家國際學生達到229,640人,而在1998-99年間,國際學生只有117,290人,增長顯而易見。

英國文化協會(British Council)一直將英國推廣為留學目的地。雖然海外留學生學費大漲,但面對生員的增長,英國文化協會依然確信的推廣策略取得了成績。

有分析人士認為,學費上漲反映了英國學校良好的口碑,顯示了恰當的市場定位。

學費一直英國大學收入的重要來源。但是英國大學不斷增長學費,也引起一些抱怨和爭議。有的批評者擔心這是急功近利,有可能損害英國大學的長遠利益。
Source

英工會要聯合採取工業行動


英國工會聯合會的秘書長巴勃爾
 工會警告,大幅度削減會把英國變成一個黑暗、可怕的地方

英國各工會的代表表示,如果政府採取行動削減工作機會、養老金和公共服務,就要聯合起來採取工業行動。
英國工會聯合會召開年會支持一項包括建立「在受威脅的工會和社區之間建立廣泛聯盟」的動議。

英國工會聯合會的秘書長巴勃爾警告說,大幅度削減會把英國變成一個「黑暗,壓抑和更可怕的地方」。

英國目前面臨1550億英鎊的財政赤字。英國首相的發言人說,希望與工會攜手解決赤字問題。
這次第142屆英國工會聯合會會議是1996年後首次在非工黨政府期間舉行的年會,許多工會成員對保守黨和自民黨聯合政府削減開支的速度和範圍感到擔憂。

英國政府的許多部門都被要求在10月20日審核開支前削減開支25%到40% 。

與會代表談論了要求英國工會聯合會「支持和協調在全國範圍和各地區採取工業行動」的動議,反對削減就業、養老金、薪酬和公共服務。如果政府不減少削減開支計劃,工會將舉行罷工。

工會討論的動議反駁了政府削減開支解決赤字的說法,並且說「公共服務受到的打擊極其野蠻和機會主義」,「其程度超過了撒切爾的黑暗時期」。

英國工會聯合會秘書長巴勃爾說,政府的削減不是臨時性的,這使公共服務和福利國家永久性地倒退。這些削減不是出於經濟需要,而是為了政治目的,背後的動機是將國家服務減少到最低水平的意識形態。

他說,政府要損害的公共服務需要幾代人才能重建。公共服務是維繫文明社會的紐帶,減少公共服務會釀成惡果,危及就業,加劇社會不公。

BBC的商務記者說,英國工會聯合會並沒有制定採取工業行動的日期,但是工會的動議意味著各工會「處於待命狀態」,準備必要時採取行動。

Axing school building programme hits poor hardest admits government

DfE assessment of consequences of ditching Labour initiative concludes children from disadvantaged homes most affected

Ed Balls 

 

Ed Balls, the shadow schools secretary: 'Once again we have clear evidence that the victims of the ... unfair and economically dangerous cuts are the poorest and those in most need.' Photograph: Facundo Arrizabalaga/EPA
Children from the poorest homes will suffer the most from the coalition's decision to axe the school rebuildling programme, the government has admitted for the first time, prompting renewed accusations that it is failing to keep its promise to make cuts fairly.

The 675 schools that were told in July that plans for refurbished or rebuilt buildings had been stopped have higher proportions of children on free school meals, who speak English as a second language and have special educational needs, than the national average. The Department for Education's (DfE) own assessment of the consequences of the decision to scrap Labour's Building Schools for the Future (BSF) programme concludes that children from disadvantaged homes will be more affected.

Ed Balls, the shadow schools secretary, said: "Once again we have clear evidence that the victims of the Tory-Lib Dem government's unfair and economically dangerous cuts are the poorest and those in most need.

"Michael Gove has got the wrong priorities. He has spent four months working on a plan for just 16 free schools while some 700,000 children have started the new term in schools that will now be condemned to having second-class facilities."

The DfE insisted that other plans, including a pupil premium to pay schools more for children from poorer backgrounds, would help close the attainment gap between rich and poor. But the admission adds weight to recent claims that the coalition's promises to introduce spending cuts fairly have been broken. Research by the Trades Union Congress to be unveiled at their conference tomorrow reveals that the full impact of the public spending cuts will fall on the poorest in society who are most reliant on state services.

The decision over the axing of BSF also highlights the problems the coalition face once the cuts begin to fall in its MPs' constituencies. There was a backlash against the education secretary Michael Gove from MPs on both sides of the coalition under pressure from their constituents. Today, the Sunday Times reports that the Liberal Democrat children's minister Sarah Teather arranged a meeting between Gove and council leaders from her Brent constituency days before those schools won a reprieve from the cuts.

The equality impact assessment required by law, after the decision to stop the school rebuilding programme, concludes: "It is clear from the data that the stoppage of these school projects has inadvertently impacted slightly more on children who can be seen to be disadvantaged in terms of social deprivation." Schools that were previously earmarked for rebuilding had on average 17% of pupils on free school meals compared with a 13% national average.

A DfE spokesman said: "We understand people's disappointment but the BSF programme was wasteful, needlessly bureaucratic and seriously behind schedule. It would have been inexcusable to have continued with the programme.

"Ministers have been clear that their overriding priority is closing the gap in attainment for pupils from disadvantaged communities by focusing capital investment in areas of the greatest need and introducing a new pupil premium to provide additional support in the classroom."
Source

Osborne rejects charges of 'immature turf war' between departments

Chancellor says Treasury works very well with DWP and that he and Iain Duncan Smith have a good relationship
George Osborne arrives to deliver a speech on the economy in the City of London
George Osborne revealed an extra £4bn was to be earmarked for the Treasury, last week. Photograph: Stefan Wermuth/Reuters

George Osborne was today forced to defend himself from claims by a coalition colleague that he was indulging in an "immature turf war" with the Department for Work and Pensions over plans to cut at least extra £4bn from the welfare benefit bill.
The £4bn annual cut emerged from Treasury briefings last week, but was not accepted by senior figures at the DWP. The £4bn figure focuses on out of work-related benefits and is separate from plans to limit the age threshold for access to child benefit, or the winter fuel allowance.
Ministers have been looking at reducing the age at which child benefit is available to 16, as well as to raise the age threshold for the winter fuel allowance from 60 to 70. Such reforms could save billions.
In the Commons, Bob Russell, the Liberal Democrat backbencher, attacked Osborne for indicating he planned to make an extra £4bn in cuts during a BBC interview last week. Russell said: "While I have no time for the welfare cheats, to try and blame this country's financial ills on this small category of the population is unethical".
He added: "It would be ethical to show an equal determination to tackle the cheats who avoid and evade tax.
"I find it somewhat immature this turf war between your office and the secretary of state for work and pensions".
The Speaker, John Bercow, had granted a request from Russell that Osborne be forced to make a Commons statement on his welfare cuts plans. Osborne denied he was involved in any dispute with the work and pensions secretary, Iain Duncan Smith, describing some of his welfare reform plans as inspirational.
But Osborne insisted he had always suggested he would be looking for extra cuts in the welfare budget, and added "staggering figures" are expected to be published later this week by the Office of National Statistics on the scale of "the tax gap" that Gordon Brown allowed to develop. The tax gap is the difference between what is forecast to be collected and what is collected.
Osborne promised "the government will be taking steps to reduce tax avoidance including tax avoidance by some of the richest people in society". He said the overall aim is to cut £61bn from the departmental budgets – £17bn more than planned by Labour in its pre-election deficit reduction programme.
But Osborne implied that the treasury wanted to retain some of the extra DWP savings to reduce the overall deficit, and not allow the savings to be ploughed back entirely into potentially expensive DWP plans to reform the benefits system to increase work incentives.
Duncan Smith believes better work incentives will in the medium term reduce the overall size of the welfare bill. He also believes changes in the way that the government can calculate an individual's income in real time through better computer software will make it easier to introduce welfare reform, and reduce fraud and error.
The government in the emergency budget in June announced plans to save £11bn from welfare, and at the time Osborne indicated he was looking for further savings from the welfare budget if at all possible.
The chancellor said yesterday: "The failure of welfare reform of the past decade had been one of the worst failures of the last government."
The shadow work and pensions secretary, Yvette Cooper, highlighted leaked letters suggesting reforms to the employment support allowance, the chief benefit for the sick, have been agreed within government delivering an extra net savings of £2.5bn by 2014-5. She claimed these savings can only be achieved by creating an additional 800,000 jobs, or by targeting those that are genuinely too sick to work.
Source

Unions threaten mass strikes over spending cuts

TUC backs co-ordinated action including walkouts and protests targeted at vulnerable MPs, to avert 'more brutish' society
Brendan Barber TUC
Brendan Barber, the TUC general secretary. Photograph: Phil Noble/ Reuters
Unions today approved the use of widespread, joint industrial action to oppose government cuts, to be preceded by a campaign to force the coalition into a U-turn through multiple protests in areas where coalition MPs are most vulnerable.
The government said it wanted to form a "genuine partnership" with the unions, and union officials confirmed they would remain in discussions with ministers while opposing the coalition's economic strategy.
But on the platform at the Trades Union Congress annual meeting in Manchester, union leaders issued a flood of strike rhetoric, condemning the coalition's plans to reduce public spending to cut the deficit rapidly and claiming it would lead to a "darker, more brutish" society.
The TUC agreed a motion which will see it launch an intense programme of lobbying MPs in the coalition while reserving the right to take "co-ordinated" strike action, which could include general strikes once the cuts start to bite in the new year.
The action plan will include a Westminster rally on the eve of the comprehensive spending review in October, a national demonstration in March and a co-ordinated campaign of industrial action after that.
The TUC is attempting to delay any strike action until the spring, when it believes it will get more public support as people start to feel the impact of the cuts. One senior union official said: "It's not a question of if, but when."
That strategy was immediately tested when the biggest local authority in the country, Birmingham city council, revealed it had written to its 26,000 non-school staff threatening them with redundancy if they did not accept new employment terms. The council said it had to save £330m but unions said they would resist the move.
Brendan Barber, general secretary of the TUC, said: "Ministers must understand this: what they take apart now could take generations to rebuild. Decent public services are the glue that holds a civilised society together, and we diminish them at our peril. Cut services, put jobs at peril, and increase inequality – that is the way to make Britain a darker, brutish, more frightening place. And let no one doubt that unions and the TUC will protect and defend dedicated public service workers."
Bob Crow, general secretary of the Rail Maritime and Transport union, who is on the more militant wing of the union movement, called for civil disobedience to defend public services and told the TUC conference: "We lie down or stand up and fight."
Dave Prentis, general secretary of Unison, said that "when the call was there", they would move to "co-ordinate industrial action to defend all we hold dear, all that past generations have fought for".
With the unions separately issuing verbal threats, the government attempted to seize the moral high ground by offering an olive branch. The Cabinet Office minister, Francis Maude, said: "We are not going back to the days where there was a complete stand-off between the trade unions and the government. Those days are gone."
Downing Street emphasised the desire of the government to work with the unions, and denied it had any plans to amend trade union laws.
"We want there to be a genuine partnership with the trade unions," the prime minister's official spokesman said. "We need to deal with the deficit, we want to work with everyone in tackling that."
Addressing the TUC, Harriet Harman, the acting Labour leader, offered the unions the party's support. "We will not be silenced by the right wing characterising protest as undemocratic," she said. "Trade unionists have the democratic rights to protest. We will not be deterred by suggestions that this is illegitimate – it is perfectly within the law.
"We will not be cowed by accusations that this is irresponsible and putting services at risk – the very opposite is true."
The threat to jobs in Birmingham drew sharp criticism from unions. Stephen Hughes, the chief executive of the authority, which is run by a Conservative-Liberal Democrat administration, sent letters to the entire non-schools staff – covering everyone from street sweepers to clerks, carers, and cleaners – warning that they would receive new contracts imposing cuts in pay and conditions.
Failure to accept the new deals would result in dismissal from the council with three months' pay.
The GMB's Birmingham and West Midlands regional officer, Joe Morgan, said unions representing workers at the council would co-operate in their response to the letter, with a mass meeting already organised for next week.
"The workers have been told that if they don't accept new contracts they will be dismissed and re-engaged on worse conditions," said Morgan. "The council's chief executive is acting like a school bully by saying that workers have to accept this or they will be sacked without compensation. Our members are in shock and are up in arms."
The unions hope to emulate the success they believe the education unions have had in opposing both the cuts to the school building programme and the government's academies programme.
The education secretary, Michael Gove, had suggested there would be hundreds of new academies and free schools by this September, but education unions have claimed they prevented the widespread conversion by working with local parent groups to oppose them.
Coalition MPs also came under intense pressure in their constituencies when 675 school rebuilding programmes were cancelled. The unions now want to form local campaigns against cuts in social services, children's centres and health provision to put maximum pressure on MPs.
Union leaders believe that once the cuts start to really bite in the spring, when the spending review decisions start to take effect, the public will back their campaigns and support industrial action where necessary.
Source

Coalition cuts will hit poor 10 times harder than rich, says TUC

Pensioners and single parents take brunt of government 'betrayal' of election promise of fair budget cutbacks
hands pensioner
The elderly poor will be among the hardest hit in the government's forthcoming cuts, according to TUC research. Photograph: WoodyStock / Alamy/Alamy
The coalition's spending cuts will hit the poorest in society 10 times harder than the richest as the health, social and education services they rely on are slashed, an extensive new study for the Trades Union Congress has found. The TUC general secretary, Brendan Barber, says the research proves that the Conservatives are breaching their election promise to introduce cuts fairly.
Lone parents and pensioners will suffer the most from the public spending cuts, the study finds, with everyone but the top 10% of earners losing more from cuts than from tax and benefit changes. Barber told the Guardian that the study, which will be unveiled on Monday as the TUC meets for its annual conference in Manchester, proved that the Conservatives had betrayed their election promises to protect frontline services and ensure any cuts are fair.
"It's a real threat to social cohesion," Barber said. "Public services are a part of the glue that holds society together. This mantra that the Tories followed, 'we're all in this together' – public services are a part of being a shared community. When you start weakening the seams you threaten the fabric of society."
The TUC intervention comes as the coalition leadership struggles to contain a row over the announcement by the chancellor, George Osborne, of £4bn in welfare cuts and amid warnings from the Police Federation that 40,000 frontline police jobs are at risk if they go ahead with the cuts suggested. The Treasury is now at the height of the negotiations with ministers over the next public spending round, with departments jockeying to protect their budgets from the worst-case 40% cuts.
David Cameron and Nick Clegg must also face their parties at the forthcoming party conferences to justify the government's decisions and maintain unity across the coalition. That will be tested on Monday when Osborne will be called to the Commons to answer an urgent question from Bob Russell, a Liberal Democrat who objected to Osborne's assertion that he would reduce the number of people who claim welfare benefits as a "lifestyle choice". Russell, the MP for Colchester, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "Yes, let's deal with the welfare cheats. But the notion that they are responsible for all the ills of the nation is in fact a smokescreen and it's not very ethical."
The research predicts the impact of the cuts across the country using publicly available data profiling the services people use, from healthcare to education and transport, and the planned cuts. It shows the profound effect the deficit reduction plans will have on families and lone parents in particular.
Excluding benefit cuts, single people will lose the equivalent, on average, of £817 a year in services, while a couple with no children will lose £1,012 and a single pensioner £1,017. A lone parent, meanwhile, will lose £1,880.
Osborne promised at the time of the budget in June that his plans would be fair and hit the richest hardest. In the dying days of the election campaign, Cameron also guaranteed that the cuts agenda would not affect frontline services.
Barber said that Liberal Democrats had fundamentally changed their position on the economy to secure a place in the coalition, but he also questioned the Conservatives' mandate. "Have they got a mandate? Not with a proportion of thirtysomething per cent of the votes. I don't think there was a clear mandate for savage cuts of the sort we're going to see.
"One of the key things they said was that their intention was to make the necessary changes to reduce the deficit, but in a way that would be fair, would protect the most vulnerable, and so on. Yet what is already clear … from the cuts that have already been decided on [is that] the impact is overwhelmingly on people at the bottom. This piece of work will demonstrate that. That will be magnified dramatically when we see an even bigger programme of cuts with the comprehensive spending review. On that absolutely core issue they will be absolutely in breach of what they committed to when they were campaigning in the election."
The TUC will launch a campaign next week to convince the public that the spending cuts are excessive and unwarranted, but Barber said it would not be calling immediately for a general strike. "There is potential for real disputes. We've got this whole cocktail of issues coming together: a pay freeze, potentially significant job losses … privatisation and restructuring.
"All of that adds up to a hell of an agenda of issues that could give rise to pretty difficult disputes, of course it could, but this campaign is about mobilising opinion and popular support across the community as a whole. It's a campaign to try to win political support and make people realise that although at the moment there seems to be public support there won't be that public support once the reality dawns of what it actually means."

Youth unemployment rising in most regions, TUC study shows

TUC argues young people were hit hard by the recession and their outlook could darken as public sector job losses mount
Unemployment
TUC analysis shows in 10 local authorities long term youth unemployment more than doubled. Photograph Matt Cardy/Getty Images
The number of young long-term unemployed people is still rising across two-thirds of the country, according to a TUC report today that slams the government for scrapping youth employment schemes.
With official unemployment data today expected to show a further rise in the long-term unemployed, the TUC argues young people were some of the worst affected by Britain's deep recession and their outlook could darken further as public sector job losses intensify.
Although the economy returned to growth at the end of last year, long-term youth unemployment is up more than a fifth on a year ago, according to the TUC's analysis of Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) data.
It says the number of 18-24 year olds on the dole for more than six months increased in 142 local authorities across the UK in the year to June, compared with just 78 where it has fallen.
The trade unions group is calling on the government to reconsider its "deep, early" spending cuts following signs they are already dampening growth and costing jobs.
"Young people were hit particularly hard by the recession and with the government focusing on spending cuts, rather than getting people back into work, they may not fare much better during the recovery," said TUC general secretary Brendan Barber.
The research gives more firepower to government critics who have lambasted its scrapping of the schemes such as the Future Jobs Fund, which helped charities and businesses to train young people and get them into long-term jobs.
"The government has yet to announce similarly well-funded support to get people back into decent paid work. Young people struggling for work this summer should be very concerned by the government's silence," added Barber.
In Scotland, where many areas are particularly dependent on public sector jobs and so are seen as vulnerable in coming months, the youth unemployment situation appeared particularly bleak. In 10 local authorities across the UK the number of long-term young claimants more than doubled, with Medway in Kent suffering the sharpest jump at 158% followed by three Scottish areas, West Lothian, South Ayrshire and the city of Edinburgh. The biggest falls in long-term youth unemployment were in Southampton and Stirling.
Economists expect Office for National Statistics data today to show some modest improvement in the labour market with the number of people claiming jobless benefits forecast to fall by 16,500 in July, the sixth drop in a row. But behind that, a further rise is anticipated in the number of people working part-time because they cannot get full-time jobs. As nervous companies shy away from hiring new full-time staff the number of long-term unemployed people over 50 is also expected to stay stubbornly high.
Still, ONS research suggests the labour market has been more resilient during this recession than in those of the 1980s and 1990s. Echoing relief among economists and business groups that unemployment failed to soar as high as initially feared during the downturn, the statisticians said that while this recession was "remarkable for its depth and duration", the loss of employment was relatively low.
In an article yesterday, the ONS cited support this time around from lower interest rates, softer wage growth and the rise in part-time work at the expense of full-time jobs.
For those who did lose their jobs, the impact was also perhaps less severe than might have been expected. A separate article from the ONS concluded that although the number of households in which no-one worked rose during the recession, there was no change to average household disposable income partly thanks to a fall in income tax payments.
But the TUC argues that while the overall unemployment situation was not as grim as previously feared, young people still face particular hurdles to getting jobs. The youth unemployment rate at 17% is more than double the national rate and recent research suggested each graduate vacancy now receives an average of 69 applications.
Source

BBC可能因退休金改革糾紛舉行罷工


BBC電視部大樓
BBC電視部大樓

英國廣播工會Bectu向5千名英國廣播公司BBC的成員徵求表決意見,是否因退休金糾紛舉行罷工。

BBC在今年6月宣佈全面改革退休金系統的計劃,來解決英國廣播公司退休基金20億英鎊赤字的問題。

如果BBC的廣播工會成員投票贊成,罷工最早可能在9月9日舉行,這意味著包括BBC逍遙音樂會最後一夜在內的現場直播都將受到影響。

英國廣播工會助理秘書長克勞利警告說,如果舉行罷工,希望在電視上觀看逍遙音樂會閉幕演出的觀眾,看到的就可能是一片黑色的屏幕。

他說,BBC的員工很少舉行罷工,而且可以播放預先錄製的節目。但是這次不一樣,因為現場播放的音樂會這類節目是很難事先錄製的。

BBC的退休金改革計劃包括對新員工關閉目前實行的最終年薪方案,已經參加該方案的員工體現在退休金上的年薪增長率也被限制在1%之內。

英國廣播公司的一名發言人說,BBC相信它的這個退休金改革計劃對員工和納稅人來說都是可持續、可負擔和可調節的。

她還說,BBC將繼續聽取員工的意見,並在90天內磋商解決這些問題。

老外為何讀不懂中國

2010年09月14日 07:33   來源:經濟參考報   蔣旭峰
“如果從上海這樣的大都市往郊區驅車100英里,你就會發現和城裏的面貌有天壤之別。”這是9日國際貨幣基金組織(IM F)中國事務主管納吉爾·查克(N igel C halk)接受筆者專訪時道出的一番大實話。   其實,哪用得著開上100英里呢?不久前,筆者帶一位歐洲朋友開車20公里左右從北京西二環到南五環打球,朋友發現高速公路逐漸變成了柏油馬 路,接著變成了揚塵漫天的土路,他不禁感慨郊區和北京、上海繁華的市區太不相同了。打球回程的路上,筆者和朋友下車到路邊的西瓜攤買西瓜,攤主一邊哄著懷 裏的孩子入睡,一邊和筆者“王婆賣瓜”推銷自己的瓜甜。筆者對朋友說:“中國沒你想像得那麼富裕吧?”
這個歐洲人感到驚愕並不奇怪。一方面,這是他第一次來“陌生的”中國,另一方面,是因他在歐洲聽到的朋友反饋、看到的報道大多集中于對中國大都 市的報道,特別是集中于對中國幾十年來取得巨大成就的報道。對很多西方人來說,他們或許對中國是世界第二大經濟體、全球最大外匯儲備國已經耳熟能詳,但對 中國廣大農村地區的了解仍是空白。即便像納吉爾·查克這樣到過中國二十多次的“中國通”,也依舊會有令其驚愕的收穫。畢竟,中國太大、人口眾多,要看懂中 國絕非朝夕之功。因此,在採訪過程中,納吉爾·查克這位中國專家在描述對中國看法時,用的第一個詞就是“情況千差萬別”(heterogeneous)。
“今年夏天,我去了中國甘肅,那裏農村地區的人淳樸友善,但生活艱苦,他們在為改變自己的生活而努力打拼。”納吉爾·查克這樣說道。納吉爾·查 克還給我算了筆賬,中國目前人均G D P只相當於他出生的英國的1/10左右,和美國相比也只有一個零頭。納吉爾·查克說的沒錯,在巨大的人口基數面前,中國經濟還稱不上一個巨人。需要看到的 是,中國與很多發達經濟體相比,不僅是在人均收入、發展品質等硬指標方面差距不小,而且在科技鴻溝、受教育程度、社保水準等很多軟實力方面差距更大。當歐 美的很多民眾在追求馬斯洛“五大需求層次”中的自我實現需求時,中國還有數以億萬計的農村民眾在為基本的衣食住行需求在奔波。正因為大家的需求層次不同, 大家的煩惱自然也不同。
本月初,專訪世行行長佐利克。在沙發上坐定後,他問我的第一個問題就是:“你是哪人?”我坦言說,我爺爺出生在中國南方的一個普通山村,我的童 年在農村度過,我的少年在縣城度過,我的青年時代在北京和國外度過,我的家庭代表中國正在進行的城市化進程“我知道像貴州等一些中國農村地區還很窮,有些 地方還沒有通電,中國還是一個發展中國家。”這是佐利克的觀察結論。
在和中國一些經濟學家交流時,他們估計,中國每年將有1%左右的城市化增長率,差不多就是有上千萬農民放下鋤頭,進城編織他們的“中國夢”,這 一進程將延續多年。即便按這一進度計算,中國10年後的城市化率也就是在55%至56%左右,同發達經濟體80%至90%左右的城市化率差距甚遠,中國還 要著力應對消除收入差距、創造新就業崗位、完善社保、產業升級等一系列挑戰,中國很多城市將長期存在本文開頭歐洲朋友見到的“不完全城鎮化特徵”的狀況。
我曾經和一些外國朋友說過一番大白話。去年,我參加了一個研討會,這個“務虛會”討論的是報紙是否會消亡的問題。這些歐洲朋友分成兩組,爭得面 紅耳赤、不可開交。之後,問我怎麼不發言,在報業發達的中國,大家是不是也很關心這個問題。我說,中國農村七億農民中會有很多人把報紙用來當手紙,兩億多 農民工中間很多人會把報紙用來糊工棚,幾億城市人口中不乏相當一部分人在撿廢品貼補家用,報紙的價格比廢紙要高,因此很受歡迎。我父母這樣的廣大中老年工 薪階層不撿報紙過日子,但是他們不會上網,如果不看報紙讓他們看什麼?所以,在歐美的地鐵站旁會有免費贈閱的報刊,在中國,你也這麼幹,就會招來一堆大爺 大娘守在地鐵站門口收集報紙,然後賣廢品貼補家用。中國農村用報紙當手紙的人估計比美國總人口都要多,所以這個問題中國人實在不會太關心。
這番實話贏得了掌聲,也給我們敲響了警鐘,其實還有太多人不了解中國的國情、不了解中國人的關切。西方人“拔苗助長”式的期待和要求是不可取 的;而作為中國人,我們自力更生、自亮家底也是不能少的。我們需要讓外國人了解中國取得的成就,也需要讓他們了解我們“成長的煩惱”。
蔣旭峰,新華社駐華盛頓分社經濟記者,近年來參與編譯過《巴菲特傳》、《德魯剋日志》等多部作品,專訪過國內外經濟學界多位知名人士。
(責任編輯:馬藝文)
 Source

OECD會員經濟成長料已觸頂

20100913 19:53:35

(中央社台北13日電)經濟合作暨發展組織(Organization for Economic Cooperation andDevelopment,OECD)說,其33個會員國7月經濟成長可能已觸頂。經濟生產顯示,中國與英國等國家成長腳步趨緩。

OECD今天發表電郵聲明,OECD 7月綜合領先指標下降0.1%,為連續兩個月下滑。OECD 6月綜合領先指標也下滑0.1%。

歐洲政府削砍預算赤字,以及失業率節節升高限制美國消費支出之際,這項指標更加證明,世界經濟正在走緩。

OECD表示:「在加拿大、法國、義大利、英國、中國和印度,未來數月經濟成長降溫的跡象更明顯。日本、美國與巴西已出現經濟擴張可能失去動力的更顯著跡象。有一些暫時性的跡象也指出,德國與俄羅斯的經濟增長即將攀頂。」(譯者:中央社徐崇哲)990913 

金融危機加速 經濟強權轉至新興國

(倫敦13日訊)英國經濟企業研究中心(簡稱CEBR)指出,金融危機將加速經濟強權移轉至新興經濟體,復甦能力超越已開發國家。

CEBR在電子郵件聲明中指出,經濟合作與發展組織(OECD)中的國家,將在2015年前佔全球經濟(GDP)的66%,相較2004年的77%。

OECD由全球最大經濟體中的33個成員組成,包括美國、英國及日本。
CEBR經濟師詹姆士說,對西方經濟體而言,未來5年的展望絕對是漫長而艱難的掙扎,全球經濟活動的焦點將逐漸轉移至中國、印度、俄羅斯及巴西等國家,不會是墨西哥、加拿大及澳洲。

CEBR指出,2015年,美國佔全球經濟的比重將降至22.6%,2007年為25.3%;英國的比重將由4%降至3.3%;德國會由6.1%降至 5.3%。
中國佔全球經濟的比重將由7%增至11.4%;印度從1.9%增至 2.9%。
“印度的經濟規模在2013年將超越俄羅斯、加拿大及西班牙。”
Source

英企擔心雙底衰退

(英國‧倫敦13日訊)會計及商業顧問公司BDO LLP今日公佈的調查結果顯示,英國企業界認為該國經濟可能會步上雙底衰退。
反映企業對未來兩季交易看法的BDO樂觀指數,從7月的95.5降至8月的93.1,為2008年11月至2009年7月衰退期間以來的最低水準。
BDO合夥人賀民敦(Peter Hemington)表示,若第四季確實是雙底衰退的起點,對於英國企業而言肯定不會是快樂的耶誕假期。
“令人感到相當失望的是,企業似乎深信2011年市況將變得相當艱難,且因此延後招聘員工及投資決策。這在很大程度上是受到政府大舉縮減支出影響。”
BDO指數匯總多項英國主要企業調查結果,受訪者超過1萬1千人,這些受訪者背後的企業合計擁有約500萬名員工。
星洲日報/財經‧2010.09.13

經濟成長 又怎麼樣?

中國時報    A22/時論廣場           2010/08/28
假如你今年的薪水,只有去年的二%,會怎樣?可能活不太下去。 但如果你是銀行執行長,卻可以繼續高居世界上最有錢的人。 

  英國《金融時報》最近公布歐美大銀行執行長的收入,發現高盛執 行長布蘭范恩去年的所得,居然比前年整整少了九八%,跟金融風暴 蔓延全球前的二○○七年相比,更只剩下零頭而已。 
  但零頭又怎樣。他去年的所得其實高達八十六萬美元,換算成台幣 ,將近三千萬,還是硬比絕大多數美國──更別談別的窮國──家庭 一輩子所能看到的存款,高出不知道多少倍。不只有他,一家家在金 融風暴中灰頭土臉的銀行,儘管好景大不如前,CEO們還是動輒好 幾千萬台幣落袋。肥貓瘦了,還是肥貓。 

  這也就是為什麼,關心貧富差距惡化的人越來越多,也越來越難以 嚥下自己收入相較之下少得可憐的事實。試想想,假如這些人年復一 年,錢都賺這麼多,而且超出一般家庭那麼遠,貧富差距想縮小,談 何容易?更讓人擔心的是,假如這些人炒豪宅,拉高了房價,搞奢華 ,為孩子們立下壞典範,我們該如何對應? 

  對應,絕不是在數字上動腦筋,在解讀上做文章。先前,主計處的 資料顯示去年台灣最有錢的家庭,所得是最低的六十六倍,怵目驚心 。但前天的經建會,卻儼然成了場官員們努力「讓人民感覺良好」的 腦力激盪大會。薛承泰認為這樣比,不公平,因為最高所得前二○% 戶數,人口通常較多,平均有四‧三人,最低二○%戶數中的人口較 少,只有一‧八九人,人多賺得多,所得差距當然大;他還說,年齡 結構也差很大──低所得家庭中有一半的人,是較無賺錢能力的六五 歲以上人口,而相對最高所得的組別中,六五歲以上者都不到一○% 。彭淮南也認為,應該把現在這種用「家戶所得」的調查方法,該為 採用「每人所得」,就可以把貧富差距「縮小」。 

  在統計方法上,這些建議聽起來有點道理,但在現實中,根本不實 際。首先,包括聯合國在內,全球財富統計大多以家庭為單位,理由 無他:這本來就是合理的──看看那些明明沒工作,卻生活奢華、出 手闊綽企業家太太與第二代,就能明白這道理。至於年齡結構,固然 是官員們眼中貧富差距統計惡化的「果」,也是「因」──看看有多 少老人家庭,是因為長期貧困、無法好好培養下一代而陷入貧窮的惡 性循環,也能明白這簡單的道理,也自然會憂心國家的貧富差距惡化  

  不明白這道理的官員,當然無法正確對應人民的憂心。例如李述德 ,反而替有錢人抱不平地說,去年所得最高家庭所繳的稅,占總稅收 的四成三,低收入(那些適用六%以下稅率)的,對稅收貢獻只占七 %,換言之,有錢人並不是沒在繳稅,沒貢獻的,是窮人。 
 
  這不是裝天真,就是真糊塗。全世界正在苦惱的,正是少數有錢人 因為財富越滾越快,所以稅收貢獻度愈來愈高;窮人沒法繳更多稅, 正是因為收入停滯不前。這還不談主計處數字所代表的,其實不是「 貧富」差距,只是「所得」差距,若要追究,多年來有多少富人聘請 了很厲害的會計師替他們把財富藏起來,以至於如今壓根不必報稅? 有多少富人就算繳了稅,仍然以一般家庭望塵莫及的速度在累積財富  

  累積財富,當然天經地義。過去四小龍,現在的四金磚,全都是在 人民想要累積財富的驅策中成長的。但很多研究已發現,當經濟有了 成績,財富累積到能在全球排名前段班時,財富是否合理地分配、肥 貓們的財富是否取之有道,往往才是人民更關心的課題。 

  這個課題,當然沒有簡單的答案。但至少我們需要官員們的覺醒, 從「成長跑步機」上跳下來,別再帶領人民在追求經濟成長中疲於奔 命;相反的,投入更多心力檢討所有造成貧富差距惡化的制度──例 如稅制,為什麼直到今天,工人們辛苦上班的所得要課稅,肥貓們交 易股票的所得卻不必繳半毛錢? 

  別在數字遊戲中自我感覺良好,面對人民的焦慮吧。(作者為早安 財經出版社發行人) 

「是總編輯要我竊聽的」

tabloid 中譯為八卦小報,意在貶抑,原指的是報紙的尺寸,相對則是大尺寸(broad sheet)版面的報紙,tabloid雖然多是醜聞、暴露的照片,但是影響力絕不在  broad sheet之下,英國的《世界新聞報(News of the World)》每周出版,銷路達二百五十萬份,是世界上賣得最好的報紙。
     台灣tabloid,從香港移植而來,而香港tabloid,則師法英國,呈現型式類似,手法也雷同,偷拍、跟蹤、僱用私家偵探,但有些手法,港台還未學得三味,譬如竊聽行動電話語音信箱。
     英國各電話公司對客戶語音信箱的管理,大同小異,都很鬆散,只要知道電話號碼與四位密碼,就可以從其他電話打進來,聽取最新與過去的語音訊息,如果使用者沒有警覺,隨時刪除聽過的訊息,很容易給人可乘之機。
     通常的模式是,媒體與專業的偵探合作,由偵探破解密碼,下載電話留言,再交由記者去分析引述,英國著名的 tabloid,從《太陽報》、《每日郵報》、到《世界新聞報》,沒有一家不是這樣幹的。
      過去留言僅做為報導的旁證,由於新聞競爭激烈,留言現竟成了新聞的主體,但單憑留言,往往會犯下大錯,譬如英國職業足球聯盟會長泰勒的祕書,留言在老闆 信箱裡:「昨天謝謝你,你好棒」,媒體竟據此認為兩人有超工作關係,結果是前一天祕書父親過世,她打電話來謝謝老闆在喪禮上的致詞。
     但《世界新聞報》在編輯部高層鼓勵與縱容下,卻越來越過分,尤其是二○○三年柯爾森(Andy Coulson)擔任總編輯後,要求記者不惜手段得到獨家,監聽的「目標名單」高達幾百名,從副首相普雷斯考、部長們,到貝克漢夫婦與其他明星、球星,無所不包,最後終於踢到鐵板。
     二○○六年哈利王子被爆料去脫衣酒吧,《世界新聞報》的皇室新聞記者為了競爭,委請私家偵探下載哈利的手機留言,結果聽到威廉王子調侃哈利女朋友大怒的訊息。這個新聞登出來,讓皇室大驚,英國第二順位王位繼承人,是恐怖組織的目標,私下談話這麼容易取得,安全上是大漏洞。
     蘇格蘭場奉令調查,搜查報社,並在偵探電腦中發現三千個手機號碼,但當時不希望擴大,僅限定皇室,由於太多人被偷聽,警方封鎖消息。
      記者與偵探隨後雙雙入獄服刑四個月,《世界新聞報》解雇他們,希望事情就此打住;兩人出獄後,控告不當解雇,報社付他們封口費,偵探拿八萬英鎊(約五百 萬台幣),記者未見公布,但肯定更多,兩人都簽了保密條款,不得對外談此事,總編輯柯爾森則辭職負責,但不到六個月,即被保守黨黨魁卡麥隆延攬,擔任貼身 幕僚,負責媒體公關。
     本來這件事屬於英國當地自家事,但《紐約時報》二月派遣普立茲獎得主的三人小組,在倫敦調查採訪四個月,上周用周日雜誌的封面故事,大篇幅刊出,直接指稱柯爾森必須為竊聽留言負責。
     在調查報導中,也刊出《世界新聞報》的兩點反駁理由:一是《紐時》訪問的《世界新聞報》前記者,是由於酗酒吃藥被開除的,其他未具名的,也應該有不可告人的原因,挾怨報復;其二是,《紐時》由於面臨梅鐸旗下《華爾街日報》的競爭,所以刻意挑上同集團的《世界新聞報》。
     這兩點理由似是而非,記者可能基於不同原因,決定站出來揭發,或是維持沉默,但是關鍵在於是否實有此事,而不是懷疑對方的動機,更何況現在已有六名前《世界新聞報》記者站出來指控;至於《紐時》的動機,或許與競爭有關,但《紐時》所點出的是更大的問題。
      柯爾森替卡麥隆工作,事實上是在替以前的老闆梅鐸搭橋,選前,梅鐸旗下媒體一致轉向,從支持工黨轉為支持保守黨,選後,柯爾森被任名為首相府的媒體公關 總管,負責與BBC溝通施壓政策,而BBC正好又是梅鐸的競爭對手。《紐時》所指出的是,要手下記者以非法手段侵害他人隱私權的人,有了權力之後,可能會 做出越軌的行為,而卡麥隆的包庇,也反映出他是怎樣的領袖特質。
      卡麥隆現在力挺柯爾森,而英國tabloid大部分感覺兔死狐悲,刻意忽略不報導,柯爾森並沒有立即壓力要辭職;但將來這件事不會善了,因為越來越多人 赫然發現自己在竊聽名單上,除了輸了選舉、心有不滿的前工黨政府部長們,也有發現機會來了、要狠狠敲梅鐸一筆的名人們,有這些壓力在後面,倫敦警方不能再 假裝僅是小事,已表示要重開調查了。

  • 2010.09.14 中國時報 / 郭崇倫
  • Source

削減赤字而不損害脆弱復蘇 英國經濟需要尋找平衡點

人民網駐英國記者  張  亮

2010年09月14日00:00  來源:人民網

英國中央銀行—英格蘭銀行日前決定將短期基准利率繼續維持在0.5%,而這一歷史最低水平已保持了19個月之久。由此可見,英國經濟雖然已經止跌回升,但執掌貨幣政策大權的英格蘭銀行對其脆弱的復蘇態勢仍然憂心忡忡,絲毫不敢輕易收緊銀根。

新近公布的一些數據也表明,當前英國經濟復蘇步履蹣跚。第三季度,企業和消費者信心指數雙雙下降,住房價格、服務業活動指數、採購經理指數等均出現下 滑,外貿赤字大幅增加,個人和企業借貸困難等,預計本季度經濟增長率將減慢至0.7%。而從總體看,繼去年第四季度和今年第一季度分別增長0.4%和 0.3%之后,英國經濟今年第二季度出人意料地增長了1.2%,但這恐怕只是曇花一現的暫時現象,因為主要是建筑業季節性快速增長和企業庫存增加所致。根 據路透社最近對66名經濟學家所做的調查顯示,由於受政府大規模削減公共開支和海外特別是其最大出口市場美國的需求疲弱之影響,今年下半年英國經濟增速將 會放慢,預計全年增長率僅為1.6%,明年增長1.9%,低於歐盟的平均增長水平。

盡管如此,英國政府依然執意對經濟下“猛藥”。卡梅 倫首相今年入主唐寧街10號之后不久,便推出了雄心勃勃的緊急預算方案,發誓要在今后5年內將龐大的政府預算赤字消滅為零。其辦法一是節流,二是開源。節 流就是大刀闊斧地削減公共開支,除國際援助和醫療衛生這兩項外,諸如教育、文化、科研、外交、國防和社會福利等統統不能幸免,每個政府部門的削減幅度高達 20%至40%不等。而開源則是調高增值稅、銀行稅和資本收益稅等。值得指出的是,要實現消滅赤字的目標,平均每年必須削減320億英鎊之多,其中80% 要靠減支來實現,對普通百姓生活的影響不言而喻。

卡梅倫政府如此痛下決心,其實也是迫不得已。受國際金融危機的劇烈沖擊,2008年第 二季度英國經濟開始陷入二戰以來最嚴重的衰退,直至去年第三季度末,持續時間長達18個月之久。政府預算赤字隨之急劇膨脹,上一財政年度達到創紀錄的 1560億英鎊,相當於國內生產總值的11%,遠遠超過歐盟《穩定與增長公約》規定的3%上限。而國債總額也已接近9000億英鎊,佔國內生產總值的 60%以上。長此下去,風險巨大,甚至有可能重蹈希臘主權債務危機的覆轍。這也正是迫使卡梅倫聯合政府向預算赤字動真格的主要動因。

眼 下,政府所有部門都在緊鑼密鼓地制定各自削減開支的實施方案。按照計劃,財政大臣奧斯本將於10月20日正式公布政府具體的“減支評估”報告。這劑苦味濃 烈的“猛藥”自然成了當下眾所矚目的焦點,因為它不僅關乎英國經濟的未來發展,更與每個人的切身利益密切相關。人們對現已透露出來的一些削減措施頗有爭 議,特別是工會組織紛紛表示強烈不滿和反對,就連保守黨內也有不同聲音。一些工會組織已表示計劃發動罷工和一系列大規模示威抗議活動,向政府施加壓力。在 野的幾位工黨黨魁候選人頻頻指責,即使在執政的保守黨和自民黨內,也有一些議員認為政府用藥過猛,脆弱的經濟復蘇難以承受,甚至有可能觸發社會動蕩,他們 還告誡政府的削減力度要適可而止。在經濟界,專家們也看法不一,支持者甚多,但質疑者也不在少數。

然而,卡梅倫政府已痛下決心,且“毫 不動搖”。財政大臣奧斯本等政府要員近來四處發表講話或接受媒體採訪,竭力游說民眾對“嚴酷”的削減方案“不必驚惶”,因為它是拯救英國經濟的靈丹妙藥, 有利於經濟的可持續發展。在政府看來,長痛不如短痛,否則就是“死路一條”。再說,消滅預算赤字是卡梅倫“新政”的核心內容,也是其建設“大社會”的必由 之路。不過,消滅預算赤字的猛藥能否順利付諸實施,同時又不傷害當前緩慢而又脆弱的經濟復蘇,這無疑將是對卡梅倫政府的最大挑戰和考驗。它能否在兩者之間 拿捏准理想平衡點,人們正拭目以待。
(人民網倫敦9月13日電) 
Source

希臘堅持控制財政赤字政策不動搖(延伸閱讀)
人民網馬德裡9月13日電  (記者丁大偉)雅典消息:希臘總理帕潘德裡歐12日在希臘北部城市薩洛尼卡舉行新聞發布會說,希臘政府隻要繼續實施與歐盟 和國際貨幣基金組織達成的一系列緊縮政策,就可以達到控制財政赤字的目標。他強調,希臘政府不會考慮重組主權債務,因為這對於希臘經濟、信譽和未來來說將 是“一場災難”。

此前一天,帕潘德裡歐在薩洛尼卡國際博覽會上發表演講時稱,希臘政府將在醫藥、能源、貨運、能源、電力等領域進行相關 改革,將對包括希臘鐵路公司在內的虧損嚴重的國有企業進行重組。希臘政府還將採取措施保護失業者和其他社會弱勢群體,這筆約為35億歐元的費用將主要來自 歐盟的相關計劃。此外,帕潘德裡歐還表示,政府將簡化工作程序以促進企業投資、綠色發展以及研究創新。他承認,政府目前正在努力與腐敗做斗爭,“我們已經 向世界証明,希臘是一個可信任的國家,希臘人民已經決定做出變革”。

另據報道,歐盟、國際貨幣基金組織和歐洲央行的專家組已於13日抵達雅典,他們將開始對希臘的財政狀況,尤其是希臘政府為獲取1100億歐元的國際援助所作承諾的落實情況進行檢查。這一輪的檢查結果將決定希臘是否能夠在12月順利獲取金額為90億歐元的第三批貸款。
(責任編輯:蘇楠)

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...