2010/07/04

Treasury orders cabinet ministers to brace themselves for 40% cuts

Treasury orders cabinet ministers to brace themselves for 40% cuts

Shock demand comes as ministers step up emergency cost-cutting across public sector
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David Cameron
 
Danny Alexander, chief secretary to the Treasury, left, with David Cameron last month. Photograph: Alastair Grant/AP
 
Cabinet ministers have been ordered by the Treasury to plan for unprecedented cuts of 40% in their departmental budgets as the coalition widens the scope of its four-year austerity drive.

The eye-watering demand from the chief secretary to the Treasury, Danny Alexander, was sent this weekend to cabinet colleagues ahead of a week in which ministers will step up emergency cost-cutting across the public sector.

The only departments not included in the Treasury trawl will be health and international development, which have been "ringfenced" for the current parliament. Education and defence will also escape lightly. Alexander has told the education secretary, Michael Gove, and the defence secretary, Liam Fox, to plan for two scenarios – cuts to budgets of 10% at best and 20% at worst over four years. All other departments – including the Home Office, the Department for Work and Pensions and the Department for Transport – have been ordered to produce plans showing the impact of cuts of 25%, and at worst 40%.
It is estimated that a 25% cut in the Home Office budget could mean a reduction in the number of police officers of almost 20,000.

In addition, all departments have been asked to show how they would slash day-to-day administration costs, excluding salaries, by 33% at the lower end and 50% at the higher end. A Treasury source said: "We are determined to tackle the record budget deficit in order to keep interest rates lower for longer, protect jobs and maintain the quality of essential public services. These planning assumptions are not final settlements, and do not commit the Treasury or departments to final settlements."

In the budget last month the chancellor, George Osborne, said that, with the exception of health and international development, departments faced average cuts of 25%. But it was expected the pain would be spread fairly evenly.

Alexander and Osborne briefed the full cabinet at a meeting last Tuesday. They stressed that asking ministers to look at the impact of 40% cuts did not mean they would be hit by such harsh settlements when final details were announced in the comprehensive spending review (CSR) on 20 October. Sources were at pains to point out that Labour had been planning cuts of 20% and that as a result the coalition's settlement would mean more for education, defence and health.

The announcement of a 40% outer limit could be seen as tactical – to prepare the public for the worst in the hope that when final details are announced they will come as less of a shock.

In a sign of how determined ministers are to act fast, the government is expected this week to halt the rebuilding of around 700 schools in order to save a further £1bn a year. And in a move that will cause bitterness among the Whitehall mandarins drawing up the cuts, ministers intend to announce plans soon to slash payoff terms for hundreds of thousands of civil servants, many of whom fear redundancy as a result of the austerity measures. Last week it emerged that at least 600,000 public service jobs could be lost.

The Observer understands that the Cabinet Office minister, Francis Maude, wants to pass legislation to change the long-standing Civil Service Compensation Scheme, which he sees as too generous. In some cases civil servants can leave with a payoff of six times their salary, though insiders say these are rare exceptions. An attempt by the previous government to change the compensation scheme failed following a successful union challenge in the high court.

Sources told the Observer that an announcement – which could lead to union threats of strike action – had been pencilled in for last Thursday and is now expected this week or next. Representatives of the main civil service unions have been called to a meeting at the Cabinet Office tomorrow.

Mark Serwotka, general secretary of the Public and Commercial Services Union, reacted angrily when told that moves were imminent. "This would be an outrageous abuse by the government, simply because it failed to get the result it wanted in the high court. We are determined to resist any attempt by the government to ride roughshod over our members' rights."

Ministers were also warned last night that the number of people classed as homeless in Britain could more than double because of "unfair" benefit cuts. The National Housing Federation, the body representing England's 1,200 not-for-profit housing associations, predicts that impending cuts to housing benefit will put a further 200,000 people at grave risk of homelessness and lead to a concentration of social problems in the most deprived areas of the country. Currently 140,000 people are classified as homeless in Britain.

The new government has unveiled plans to cut housing benefit by 10% for people claiming jobseeker's allowance for 12 months or more from April 2013. The cuts would hit Britain's 200,000 single, childless claimants hardest. Someone in London with a weekly rent of £350 would see their benefit cut by £35. The NHF said tenants would be forced to make up the shortfall from their £65.45 weekly allowance, leaving just £30.45 for food, clothing and energy.

"Cutting housing benefit could have a catastrophic impact on the lives of thousands of people who – despite their best efforts – have failed to find work after 12 months," said the federation's chief executive, David Orr. "These changes mean that up to 200,000 people could end up homeless. Quite frankly, the proposals are disturbing and unfair."

Critics also say plans to cap payments to private tenants and to reduce the level at which housing benefit is paid from 50% of local rent levels to 30% could force hundreds of thousands of families out of their homes.
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FT 金融時報:緊縮預算案將重塑英國

緊縮預算案將重塑英國     
2010年06月30日 15:37       
FT金融時報

幾年前的某個時刻,英國似乎扭轉了歷史潮流。一個中等強國找回了自信和地位感——自大英帝國落下帷幕以來,這兩件事已基本上與英國無緣。    

當時,英國經濟不僅開放,而且充滿活力和競爭力。倫敦既是一個全球金融服務業中心,也是新興國家新富階層的一個第二故鄉。托尼 貝理雅(Tony Blair)的中左翼政府利用豐厚的稅收收入來修補和翻新英國的公共部門。    

最為重要的是,英國能夠做到魚與熊掌兼得:一面是富者愈富的自由市場經濟,另一面是現代化、資源充足的公共服務與福利。英國向渴望移民本國的人敞開了大門。它的大學得到興旺發展。在國內取得成功的同時,英國的全球地位也在提升。它重新躋身一流強國之列。    

當然,問題也是存在的。伊拉克戰爭毀掉了貝理雅的聲譽,並最終害得他丟掉首相一職。不過,全球金融危機打碎了“輕鬆創造繁榮”的夢想。當戈登布朗(Gordon Brown)政府在今年5月的大選中被擊敗時,一位財政大臣感慨地給自己的繼任者留了張便條:“余錢已無”。    

人們目前仍在爭論誰該對掏空國庫負責:是前任政府的揮霍,還是銀行家的貪婪無度二者都要負一定的責任。不管怎樣,保守黨-自由民主黨聯合政府財政大臣喬治 奧斯本(George Osborne)上周已匯總出了預算額。所有人都知道,預算案的消息會很殘酷。但即使在聽完奧斯本詳細說明將如何大幅減支加稅後,也很少有人明白這會多痛苦,以及它對英國如何看待自身和世界如何看待英國意味着什麼。    

在加稅數十億英鎊和減少公共服務支出數百億英鎊的厚重數字背後,呈現出另一個英國的概貌:如果一切都出人意料的順利,它會更“瘦身”,甚至可能更健康;但如果不順利,它就將陷入經濟衰退;無論是哪種結果,它都將變得更“內向”、野心更小。    

人們問得最多的一個問題是,奧斯本這一厲行節約的賭博是否會獲得回報。市場是否會因英國政府承諾消除赤字而對之進行獎賞 或者,如此狂熱地奉行財政緊縮,是否會把英國經濟重新推入衰退    

兩種結果皆有可能。戴維 卡梅倫(David Cameron)的保守黨和尼克 克萊格(Nick Clegg)的自由民主黨組成的聯合政府,已做出如下兩點考慮:它不能冒主權債務危機從歐元區蔓延至英國之險;它必須提前應對。它希望,現在就採取行動會令經濟形勢在下次選舉前有所好轉。    

奧斯本有不少同道中人。市場已嚇得除美國以外的所有國家紛紛退出危機後的凱恩斯主義權宜政策。希臘和愛爾蘭的緊縮幅度比英國更甚。支持奧斯本和擔心大幅削減公共支出會毀掉英國復甦的經濟學家各占半數。    

無論如何,嚴厲緊縮都會讓英國國民感到頭暈目眩。除了減薪和凍結福利,英國政府還提出把白廳的多數預算削減25%。即使是以熱衷精簡大政府而聞名(或聲名狼藉)的瑪格麗特 撒切爾(Margaret Thatcher),也從不敢如此大幅地削減預算。    

形勢將變得嚴峻起來。在英格蘭,公共部門數十萬就業崗位的流失,將拉大繁榮的南方與依賴政府的北方之間的財富差距。緊縮將助長蘇格蘭和威爾士的民族主義。公共建築將陷入失修,公路和鐵路也得不到建設。
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下一個10年的世界—中國旭日東昇、美國停滯不前

2010-07-03 09:43

讀到兩篇頗有感受的文章,一是諾貝爾經濟學獎得主克魯曼寫了一篇<期待下一個10年>,他認為美國經歷了過去十年,這是一個「巨大的零」,因為美國在過去10年,就業機會是零成長,一般家庭收入也是零成長。因此,克魯曼稱:「我們最好趕快忘記過去這10年」。我們不必對這個一無所得的「巨大的零」依依不捨,但是下一個十年是什麼?克魯曼也說不清楚。

另一篇文章是英國<金融時報>的專欄作家馬丁.沃夫所寫的「日本慘況,值得中國警惕」。他提到20年前,日本是最成功的國家,但沒有人知道20年後日本會是這樣。馬丁.沃夫舉了經濟歷史學家安格斯.麥迪森(Angus Maddison)的統計,過去20年,日本平均GDP(國內生產毛額)成長只有1.1%,比起中國10.5%的成長,簡直是天差地別。日本的GDP在1950年時只有美國的5分之1,但是到了泡沫經濟最巔峰的91年,日本的GDP追到美國的85%,但是到了06年只剩下72%。

這個數字如果拿股市的市值來比就更凸顯了。1990年日經指數漲到38957點,市值高達6.6兆美元,而當時的美國道瓊指數只有2千多點,市值4.4兆美元,日本股市的市值一度是美國股市的1.5倍;而更誇大的是,日本資產大暴漲,那時的日本號稱,1個日本資產的總市值可以買下4個美國。但是,資產泡沫一吹破,日本經濟一路探底,到目前為止,已經20個年頭了,在台灣,已是生下一個小孩到服兵役了。
克魯曼說的過去10年,講的是美國在進入21世紀第一個10年面臨的停滯。而馬丁.沃夫則在訴說日本過去沉淪不前的20年。而當美國、日本都停下腳步,東方的巨龍—中國卻旭日東昇,成了全世界最醒目的焦點。

因為同樣GDP的數字,如果用在1978年中國開始改革經濟的那一年,那年中國GDP總產值是2千5百億美元,而美國是2.5兆美元。32年前,美國的GDP總產值是中國的10倍,但是,到了08年,中國的GDP總產值是4.22兆美元,美國是14.33兆美元,中國的經濟規模拉近到美國的將近3分之1。

最近中國公布09年GDP總產值是33.45兆人民幣,比08年成長8.7%,換算成美元則是4.9兆美元。我在想,中國很可能就在09年正式超越日本成為世界第2大經濟體。不過農曆春節期間,日本公布09年第4季GDP季成長1.1%,年成長4.6%,日本的經濟總產值達5.1兆美元,仍然領先中國的4.9兆美元,中國仍居世界第3位。
不過中國正處在高成長的勢頭上,終將超越日本成為世界第2大經濟體,甚至有直追美國的機會。

回顧過去兩個世紀的歷史,中國在康熙、雍正、乾隆三朝盛世的時代,GDP總產值一度盤踞全球3分之2,到了乾隆晚期國力才急轉直下。當時英國步入海上霸權時代,英、法、荷、德都成了大國。根據歷史記載,1840年(道光年間)美國人口1670萬人,GDP總產值79億美元,而那個時候,法國人口3390萬人,比美國多了1倍,而GDP產值達82億美元,也比美國還多。
 
但是打過兩次世界大戰之後,法國的人口到了1965年是4900萬人,美國則變成民族大熔爐,人口激增到1.95億人。這個時候,法國的經濟總產值突破1千億美元,但美國卻變成7千億美元。同樣這百餘年之間,美國是大躍進,歐洲則裹足不前。
19世紀的英國號稱日不落大帝國,全世界到處都是英屬地,如今歐洲逐漸邊陲化,最近新流行的G2,指的就是美國與中國,歐洲經濟規模仍然十分龐大,但是政治地位卻已今非昔比,若以08年GDP總產值來看,德國的3.818兆美元居世界第4,法國以2.978兆美元居第5,英國以2.787兆美元,已退居第6,義大利則以2.399兆美元排第7;換句話說,從第4到第7都是歐洲國家,德、法、英、義4國加起來的GDP總值達12兆美元,已十分逼近美國,但是政經地位比起美國卻相差十萬8千里,若再把排第9位的西班牙(1.683兆美元)加進去,歐洲5大國GDP總產值正好與美國一樣,但是歐洲人多嘴雜,政令多元,實力也大打折扣,這次歐洲爆發國家主權債務危機,看起來是小事,卻變成大事,卻也凸顯了經濟地位與政治地位不相稱的一面。
從2000年以後,全世界的焦點都放在金磚四國(BRICs)上面,所謂的金磚四國從經濟總產值來看,地位遠不及歐洲,但是它們凝聚的焦點卻遠甚於歐洲,是因為它們的成長力道強勁。

例如,中國的經濟產值從只有美國的10分之1,追到目前的3分之1,在全球GDP排行中,中國居第3大地位,俄羅斯在08年已經以1.757兆美元打敗西班牙,坐上世界第8的位置,第10名則是旭日東昇的巴西,經濟規模也達1.665兆美元,第11名則是印度,然後緊接著是澳洲與南韓。

下一個十年誰會崛起?可以想見中國、巴西、俄羅斯、印度,還有雄心勃勃的南韓勢必扮演重要角色。09年中國GDP成長達8.7%,印度也超過5.6%,巴西大約3.3%,相較於金融海嘯後仍在探底的歐美經濟體,像德國公布09年GDP衰退5%,這些年輕人口比重高的新興國家已立於不敗之地。

就像美國在1776年建國,當19世紀英國稱霸世界的時候,美國卻以卓越的民主制度,吸收全世界優秀人才,在兩次世界大戰,歐洲全被戰火襲擊下,美國迅速崛起,奠定了百年的霸業。中國則在18世紀把霸業交到英國人手上,到了1978年之前的文革仍在酣睡,鄧小平的改革開放才把中國喚醒,進入21世紀的第1個10年,中國經濟展露強國的頭角,開始受到各國重視,我們如果以克魯曼的題目「期待下一個十年」來作文章,那麼未來十年的世界會是怎麼樣的新形勢?

當然大家的焦點一定會放在美國如何繼續穩住世界霸權,繼續當老大;而中國則在大國崛起後,如何參與國際社會,如何重新找到中國新定位。這當中,中國必須面臨台灣、西藏、新疆問題,以及中國產業結構調整,城鄉差距及貧富懸殊等諸多問題的新挑戰

非歐盟經濟移民 明年新限額諮詢

非歐盟經濟移民 明年新限額諮詢
2010-07-04 05:51:00 
 
(本 報記者董婷婷報道)內政部邊境管理局(UKBA)及移民諮詢委員會(MAC),目前分別就明年4月1日起即將實施的,常設非歐盟經濟移民人數限制政策細則 進行諮詢。

今年7月19日至明年3月31日期間,臨時配額只限制Tier 1一般類(General)國外申請人。但MAC在諮詢文件建議政府,明年4月起,將在英國國內外申請、續簽、轉簽Tier 1一般簽證的申請人,及其配偶全部列入配額限制內。 劉志偉律師指出,根據以往經驗,政府往往全盤接受MAC的建議。因此,MAC以上建議很可能得以實施,令新進入英國的非歐盟經濟移民進一步減少。

UKBA諮詢內容包括:為Tier 1及Tier 2簽證申請人設置年度人數上限後,發放簽證是否應遵循「先到先得,額滿即止」的原則;是否再度提高Tier 1及Tier 2的達標標準;是否增設加分項;是否應將Tier 1投資者(Investor)及企業家(Entrepreneur)、Tier 2公司內部調職(ICT),以及申請人配偶都歸入限額內等。該諮詢9月17日結束。

MAC諮詢則主要通過收集各行業、經濟、本地勞工培訓資料,對明年正式實施的非歐盟經濟移民人限水平提供建議。該諮詢將於9月7日結束。

有華人律師提醒廣大華人,認真查閱兩份諮詢文件,在今年9月諮詢期結束前,按規定提交書面意見,盡可能為自己爭取權益。 劉志偉律師則鼓勵華人團體團結印巴族裔,以及英國移民法從業員協會(Immigration Law Practitioners' Association,ILPA)等專業機構,對政府未來移民政策施加影響。
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