美
國財政部長蓋特納(Timothy Geithner)說﹐他將利用週末20國集團(G20)財政部長會議的機會﹐推動各國實現世界經濟“再平衡”、使之減少對美國消費的依賴﹐促進建立一套匯率政策“規範”﹐並讓他國相信﹐美國並不打算通過本幣貶值來實現繁榮。
Reuters
美國財政部長蓋特納
蓋特納接受《華爾街日報》採訪時說﹐全世界迫切需要在匯率政策的指導原則上達成一致。他說﹐對於什麼是公平的匯率政策﹐目前還沒有一個確定的認識。
他還說﹐美國正在敦促G20中的各個工業化國家和發展中國家﹐希望它們採用量化指標來判斷各國的貿易順差或逆差是否“可持續”﹐以此來衡量推進全球增長更加平衡的努力取得了多大進展。
蓋 特納將於本週末在韓國會見其他G20成員國的財政部長﹐值此之際人們普遍懷疑﹐將阿根廷、法國和美國等相互差異如此巨大的國家囊括在內的G20﹐能否化解 各國之間在匯率問題上的矛盾。巴西財政部長曾警告有發生“國際匯率戰”的危險。印度總理曾說﹐他“對全球局勢感到擔憂”。英國央行(Bank of England)行長曾警告﹐如果各國認識不到有必要為集體利益而採取行動﹐則有可能出現保護主義浪潮。
對於週六財長會議過後發表實質性公報的可能性﹐美國官員不抱太大期望。即使有什麼重要聲明﹐會議東道主韓國也寧願留到11月在首爾舉行的G20首腦會議上發表。
蓋特納說﹐大家都在努力盤算什麼符合他們自己的利益﹔這道題不是兩個星期就能答出來的﹐要花三五年才能解決﹔我們希望推動G20成為一個更勇於任事的機構。
談到匯率問題﹐蓋特納說﹐我們希望各國形成一套匯率政策規範。
美國官員說﹐要達成一個1985年《廣場協議》那樣的全球匯率協議以推動美元貶值﹐目前條件還不成熟。財政部另一位官員對記者們說﹐他們的目標是讓各國同意“採取合作態度”(即使不做出明確的承諾)﹐從而使中國和受它影響的小國同意本幣升值。
蓋特納將全球貨幣分為三類。他把按任何標準衡量貨幣都被低估的國家歸為一類﹐尤其是中國。他說﹐如果9月以來人民幣升值步伐可以持續﹐它將幫助修正人民幣低估程度。他說﹐其他新興市場國家也起到一定作用。
蓋特納說﹐如果中國知道假如讓人民幣更快升值﹐其他新興市場國家將步其後塵﹐對他們來說這更容易。
他把實行彈性匯率機制﹐但干預匯市或徵稅的新興經濟體歸為第二類﹐這些國家以此作法降低貨幣被大幅高估、經濟出現泡沫、通脹壓力上升的風險﹐美國並不反對這樣的作法。
蓋 特納把目前大致符合合理價格的主要貨幣歸為第三類﹐暗示他認為美元兌歐元和美元兌日圓在本已有的跌幅以外﹐沒必要進一步下跌。蓋特納強調﹐美國並沒有實行 故意將美元貶值的政策。本週稍早﹐蓋特納在加州帕羅奧圖市的講話中說﹐沒有一個國家可以通過貨幣貶值令經濟繁榮和增加競爭力。
最終更強大的全球經濟要求中國等出口導向型國家努力抑制貿易順差﹐而美國等需要大量進口的國家要努力減少貿易逆差。
蓋特納說﹐世界各地希望我們儲蓄更多﹐這意味著美國對世界各地的需求較少。需求將來自其他渠道。
G20國家在多倫多峰會上就財政政策標準達成一致﹐目前美國尋求在貿易流通、經常項目餘額的最廣泛尺度方面達成這樣的標準。
蓋特納說﹐我們鼓勵我們的貿易伙伴為再平衡承諾增加更多實質內容﹐我們正在研究我們能否同意致力於使外部失衡達到更可持續的水平﹐以及考慮到大宗商品生產國等不同國家的需要。
中國預計未來幾年經常項目赤字將佔國內生產總值（GDP）的大約4%﹐美國官員希望中國表示讚同。但中國商務部發言人姚堅上週表示﹐別國無權評論他國的貿易順差是否公平。
source
Damian Paletta / David Wessel
（更新完成）
他還說﹐美國正在敦促G20中的各個工業化國家和發展中國家﹐希望它們採用量化指標來判斷各國的貿易順差或逆差是否“可持續”﹐以此來衡量推進全球增長更加平衡的努力取得了多大進展。
蓋 特納將於本週末在韓國會見其他G20成員國的財政部長﹐值此之際人們普遍懷疑﹐將阿根廷、法國和美國等相互差異如此巨大的國家囊括在內的G20﹐能否化解 各國之間在匯率問題上的矛盾。巴西財政部長曾警告有發生“國際匯率戰”的危險。印度總理曾說﹐他“對全球局勢感到擔憂”。英國央行(Bank of England)行長曾警告﹐如果各國認識不到有必要為集體利益而採取行動﹐則有可能出現保護主義浪潮。
對於週六財長會議過後發表實質性公報的可能性﹐美國官員不抱太大期望。即使有什麼重要聲明﹐會議東道主韓國也寧願留到11月在首爾舉行的G20首腦會議上發表。
蓋特納說﹐大家都在努力盤算什麼符合他們自己的利益﹔這道題不是兩個星期就能答出來的﹐要花三五年才能解決﹔我們希望推動G20成為一個更勇於任事的機構。
談到匯率問題﹐蓋特納說﹐我們希望各國形成一套匯率政策規範。
美國官員說﹐要達成一個1985年《廣場協議》那樣的全球匯率協議以推動美元貶值﹐目前條件還不成熟。財政部另一位官員對記者們說﹐他們的目標是讓各國同意“採取合作態度”(即使不做出明確的承諾)﹐從而使中國和受它影響的小國同意本幣升值。
蓋特納將全球貨幣分為三類。他把按任何標準衡量貨幣都被低估的國家歸為一類﹐尤其是中國。他說﹐如果9月以來人民幣升值步伐可以持續﹐它將幫助修正人民幣低估程度。他說﹐其他新興市場國家也起到一定作用。
蓋特納說﹐如果中國知道假如讓人民幣更快升值﹐其他新興市場國家將步其後塵﹐對他們來說這更容易。
他把實行彈性匯率機制﹐但干預匯市或徵稅的新興經濟體歸為第二類﹐這些國家以此作法降低貨幣被大幅高估、經濟出現泡沫、通脹壓力上升的風險﹐美國並不反對這樣的作法。
蓋 特納把目前大致符合合理價格的主要貨幣歸為第三類﹐暗示他認為美元兌歐元和美元兌日圓在本已有的跌幅以外﹐沒必要進一步下跌。蓋特納強調﹐美國並沒有實行 故意將美元貶值的政策。本週稍早﹐蓋特納在加州帕羅奧圖市的講話中說﹐沒有一個國家可以通過貨幣貶值令經濟繁榮和增加競爭力。
最終更強大的全球經濟要求中國等出口導向型國家努力抑制貿易順差﹐而美國等需要大量進口的國家要努力減少貿易逆差。
蓋特納說﹐世界各地希望我們儲蓄更多﹐這意味著美國對世界各地的需求較少。需求將來自其他渠道。
G20國家在多倫多峰會上就財政政策標準達成一致﹐目前美國尋求在貿易流通、經常項目餘額的最廣泛尺度方面達成這樣的標準。
蓋特納說﹐我們鼓勵我們的貿易伙伴為再平衡承諾增加更多實質內容﹐我們正在研究我們能否同意致力於使外部失衡達到更可持續的水平﹐以及考慮到大宗商品生產國等不同國家的需要。
中國預計未來幾年經常項目赤字將佔國內生產總值（GDP）的大約4%﹐美國官員希望中國表示讚同。但中國商務部發言人姚堅上週表示﹐別國無權評論他國的貿易順差是否公平。
source
Damian Paletta / David Wessel
（更新完成）
Geithner's Goal: Rebalanced World Economy
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said he would use weekend meetings of G-20 finance ministers to advance efforts to 'rebalance' the world economy so it is less reliant on U.S. consumers, to move toward establishing 'norms' on exchange-rate policy, and to persuade others the U.S. doesn't aim to devalue its way to prosperity.
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Geithner said the world sorely needs to agree on guidelines for exchange-rate policy. 'Right now, there is no established sense of what's fair,' he said.
He also said the U.S. is pressing the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations to adopt numerical gauges to judge whether individual trade surpluses or deficits are 'sustainable,' a way to measure progress towards the goal of more balanced global growth.
Mr. Geithner is to meet G-20 counterparts in South Korea this weekend amid widespread skepticism about whether the organization of economies as diverse as Argentina, France and the U.S. can defuse exchange-rate tensions. Brazil's finance minister has warned of 'an international currency war.' India's prime minister has said he is 'worried about the global situation.' The governor of the Bank of England has warned of protectionism unless 'the need to act in the collective interest' is recognized.
U.S. officials played down the likelihood of a substantial communique after Saturday's meeting of finance ministers. The Koreans preferred to hold any major announcements for the November meeting of G-20 leaders in Seoul.
'People are trying to figure out what is in their self interest,' Mr. Geithner said. 'It's not a test you solve in two weeks. It'll take three to five years. We want to move the G-20 toward an institution with more promise.'
On currencies, Mr. Geithner said, 'We would like countries to move toward a set of norms on exchange rate policy.'
U.S. officials say conditions aren't ripe for a global accord on currencies like the 1985 Plaza accord to push the dollar down. The goal, another senior Treasury official told reporters, is an agreement to 'pursue a cooperative approach' that would, even without explicit pledges, lead China and smaller countries in its shadow to let their exchange rates appreciate.
Mr. Geithner divided world currencies into three groups. In one, he put countries with currencies 'undervalued by any measure,' especially China. He said, though, that if the pace of appreciation seen since September were sustained, it would help correct the undervaluation. Other emerging-markets play a role, he said.
'If China knew that if it moved more rapidly, other emerging markets would move with them, it would be easier for them to move,' Mr. Geithner said.
In a second group, he put 'emerging economies with flexible exchange rates that intervene or impose taxes to try to reduce the risks of significant overvaluation, of bubbles and of inflationary pressures.' The U.S. isn't objecting to such efforts.
In the third group, he put 'the major currencies, which are roughly in alignment now,' a suggestion that he sees no need for the dollar to sink more than it already has against the euro and yen. Mr. Geithner emphasized that the U.S. is not pursuing a deliberate policy of devaluing the dollar. Earlier this week, speaking in Palo Alto, Calif., he said that no country can 'devalue its way to prosperity and competitiveness.'
Ultimately, a sounder global economy demands efforts to restrain trade surpluses in export-driven countries like China and reduce trade deficits in import-hungry countries like the U.S.
'The rest of the world wants us to save more--and that means less U.S. demand for the rest of the world. Demand is going have to come from other sources,' Mr. Geithner said.
G-20 countries agreed to norms for fiscal policy at their Toronto summit. Now the U.S. is seeking the same for the broadest measure of trade flows, current account balances.
'We're encouraging our partners to put a little more flesh on the skeleton of the rebalancing commitment,' Mr. Geithner said. 'We are exploring whether we can agree to commit to keep the external imbalances to levels that are more sustainable, making allowances for different kinds of countries, such as commodity producers.'
U.S. officials are hopeful China, which projects that its current-account deficit will hover around 4% of gross domestic product in the next few years, will go along. But a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, Yao Jian, said last week, 'Other countries have no right to comment on what is a reasonable level for a country's trade surplus.'
Damian Paletta / David Wessel
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Geithner said the world sorely needs to agree on guidelines for exchange-rate policy. 'Right now, there is no established sense of what's fair,' he said.
He also said the U.S. is pressing the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations to adopt numerical gauges to judge whether individual trade surpluses or deficits are 'sustainable,' a way to measure progress towards the goal of more balanced global growth.
Mr. Geithner is to meet G-20 counterparts in South Korea this weekend amid widespread skepticism about whether the organization of economies as diverse as Argentina, France and the U.S. can defuse exchange-rate tensions. Brazil's finance minister has warned of 'an international currency war.' India's prime minister has said he is 'worried about the global situation.' The governor of the Bank of England has warned of protectionism unless 'the need to act in the collective interest' is recognized.
U.S. officials played down the likelihood of a substantial communique after Saturday's meeting of finance ministers. The Koreans preferred to hold any major announcements for the November meeting of G-20 leaders in Seoul.
'People are trying to figure out what is in their self interest,' Mr. Geithner said. 'It's not a test you solve in two weeks. It'll take three to five years. We want to move the G-20 toward an institution with more promise.'
On currencies, Mr. Geithner said, 'We would like countries to move toward a set of norms on exchange rate policy.'
U.S. officials say conditions aren't ripe for a global accord on currencies like the 1985 Plaza accord to push the dollar down. The goal, another senior Treasury official told reporters, is an agreement to 'pursue a cooperative approach' that would, even without explicit pledges, lead China and smaller countries in its shadow to let their exchange rates appreciate.
Mr. Geithner divided world currencies into three groups. In one, he put countries with currencies 'undervalued by any measure,' especially China. He said, though, that if the pace of appreciation seen since September were sustained, it would help correct the undervaluation. Other emerging-markets play a role, he said.
'If China knew that if it moved more rapidly, other emerging markets would move with them, it would be easier for them to move,' Mr. Geithner said.
In a second group, he put 'emerging economies with flexible exchange rates that intervene or impose taxes to try to reduce the risks of significant overvaluation, of bubbles and of inflationary pressures.' The U.S. isn't objecting to such efforts.
In the third group, he put 'the major currencies, which are roughly in alignment now,' a suggestion that he sees no need for the dollar to sink more than it already has against the euro and yen. Mr. Geithner emphasized that the U.S. is not pursuing a deliberate policy of devaluing the dollar. Earlier this week, speaking in Palo Alto, Calif., he said that no country can 'devalue its way to prosperity and competitiveness.'
Ultimately, a sounder global economy demands efforts to restrain trade surpluses in export-driven countries like China and reduce trade deficits in import-hungry countries like the U.S.
'The rest of the world wants us to save more--and that means less U.S. demand for the rest of the world. Demand is going have to come from other sources,' Mr. Geithner said.
G-20 countries agreed to norms for fiscal policy at their Toronto summit. Now the U.S. is seeking the same for the broadest measure of trade flows, current account balances.
'We're encouraging our partners to put a little more flesh on the skeleton of the rebalancing commitment,' Mr. Geithner said. 'We are exploring whether we can agree to commit to keep the external imbalances to levels that are more sustainable, making allowances for different kinds of countries, such as commodity producers.'
U.S. officials are hopeful China, which projects that its current-account deficit will hover around 4% of gross domestic product in the next few years, will go along. But a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, Yao Jian, said last week, 'Other countries have no right to comment on what is a reasonable level for a country's trade surplus.'
Damian Paletta / David Wessel
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