IMF 在最新的《世界經濟展望》(World Economic Outlook)中預計﹐歐元區今明兩年的經濟增速分別為1.7%和1.5%。這高於IMF在4月份《世界經濟展望》中作出的1.0%和1.3%的預期﹐ 同時也比歐洲央行(European Central Bank)對今明兩年的增長預期分別高出0.1個百分點。
George Osborne is facing strong criticism over his controversial changes to the welfare system. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA
George Osborne demolished the universal principle at the heart of the welfare state today with the withdrawal of child benefit from 1.2 million higher income families, prompting warnings that he was punishing the party's middle-class base and undermining stay-at-home mothers.
Insisting he was making "tough but fair" reforms to tackle the national deficit, Osborne told his party conference he was withdrawing child benefit from parents earning enough to pay higher-rate tax – currently about £44,000.
It will mean a loss of £1,055 a year for one-child families and almost £2,500 for those with three children.
In an attempt to protect his rightwing flank, Osborne balanced his attack on middle-class benefits by announcing a £26,000-a-year cap on the total value of benefits received by workless households.
The changes, due to be introduced in 2013, will save the Treasury £1bn a year in child benefit and £250m in housing benefit payments as it seeks to eliminate the UK's £109bn structural deficit by the end of this parliament.
Although the prime minister, David Cameron, had warned his party that the "rubber was about to hit the road" on spending cuts, many senior backbenchers feared the manner of today's attack on child benefit was badly misdirected.
The Treasury acknowledged the cut would lead to the anomaly of a two-income family earning as much as £86,000 not losing the benefit while a family with the father earning more than £44,000 and the wife staying at home will lose all of it.
The Centre for Social Justice, the thinktank set up by the work and pensions secretary, Iain Duncan Smith, expressed "concern" at the measure and urged the government to "explore alternative options" before implementation in 2013.
The children's minister, Tim Loughton, said the benefit – to be withdrawn through the tax system – could be reinstated once the deficit is tackled. Osborne did not make this commitment himself today.
Duncan Smith said he did not love the announcement, but said the decision was necessary to raise £1bn.
Phillip Hammond, the transport secretary who insisted during the election that universal principle surrounding child benefit must be protected, admitted the cabinet had agonised about the decision.
Critics said the simplicity of the measure would bring perverse disincentives, such as the loss of £2,500 in child benefit if a family with three children were to have a rise in income of £300 from £43,500.
Hammond admitted the simple system would bring anomalies, but he said the Treasury had to choose between these and a complex system of means testing.
Osborne told his conference: "Believe me I understand that most higher-rate taxpayers are not the super rich.
"But a system that taxes working people at high rates only to give it back in child benefit is very difficult to justify at a time like this. And it is very difficult to justify taxing people on low incomes to pay for the child benefit of those earning so much more than them. When the debts left by Labour threaten our economy, when are welfare costs are out of control, this measure makes sense."
Treasury sources refused to guarantee there will not be more cuts to universal benefits, such as the winter fuel allowance, when the spending review is announced on 20 October. It is expected the government will raise the age at which the allowance can be claimed.
The cap on benefits – likely to raise £300m – is seen as a vote winner but prompted warnings from housing charities of an exodus of the poor from southern inner cities as the 50,000 affected families face benefit cuts worth an average of £93 a week. Shelter said the poor would simply not have the cash to pay high cost rents in the private rented sector.
But Osborne drew applause at the conference for warning the welfare budget had to be brought under control. He said: "If this welfare state is going to gain the trust of the British people, it needs to reflect the British sense of fair play. Unless they have disabilities to cope with, no family should get more from living on benefits that the average family gets from going out to work. If someone believes that living on benefits is a lifestyle choice we need to make them think again."
The shadow work and pensions secretary, Yvette Cooper, said: "Instead of boosting jobs and growth, the government is making families with children pay more.
"We support child benefit for all children and all families. Of course there are difficult choices to make and we need more welfare reform, but it's better to get the economy growing faster and raise more tax from the banks than to cut support for children in middle income families."
The decision on child benefit was defended by senior Lib Dems even though at their conference a fortnight ago they voted to protect child benefit.
TUC general secretary, Brendan Barber, said: "Everyone can agree that we need a fairer economy built on higher, better balanced growth. But the spending and benefit cuts will do the opposite – pushing many people into poverty, hitting middle income Britain hard and threatening growth. The language may be different, but the policies are all too reminiscent of the 1980s." Source
George Osborne is expected to reveal details of his plan to cut Britain’s £109bn deficit tomorrow. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA
George Osborne will tomorrow vow to stick by his controversial plan to wipe out Britain's £109bn structural deficit in one parliament, saying the alternative of delay would only hit the poor and consign the country to a decade of debt.
In his speech to the Conservative party conference in Birmingham, the chancellor will announce that every Whitehall department will have its head office staff cut by a third, promise to give the armed forces the tools to finish the job, and dismiss Britain's public service structure as designed for the 1950s.
He will audaciously offer the deficit reduction plan as an example of his One Nation Conservatism, rather than an ideological assault on the state, and will hold out the prospect of lifting more people out of tax through raising thresholds.
He will insist that "there will be no cuts for its own sake, but instead savings to secure our future".
However, Osborne will warn that Labour's prescription of a slower deficit reduction would mean extra interest payments to foreign governments in addition to the £120m currently being paid each day. "Delay now means pay more later. Everyone knows it's the most basic rule of debt. So Labour's cuts would not be smaller – they would be bigger and last longer," he will say, leading to "a decade lost to debt".
His speech two weeks before the spending review betrays coalition nerves that the public supports deficit reduction in principle, but will recoil from the speed, scale and specifics of the government's plan.
In a conference certain to be dominated by the coming spending cuts, both David Cameron and the work and pensions secretary, Iain Duncan Smith, strongly hinted that some universal benefits will have to be cut in part to implement a 10-year total overhaul of the welfare system, ending with the merger of tax credits and a range of work-related benefits.
Duncan Smith said the payment of benefits to people earning more than £50,000 a year was "completely bonkers", remarks that suggest the government is willing to tax child benefit, or restrict other universal benefits such as the winter fuel allowance.
The withdrawal of some universal benefits from middle-class families has won the surprise support of Martin Narey, chief executive of Barnardo's. Writing in the Guardian, he says the case for reform is now morally overwhelming.
The coalition's proposed universal credit will be phased and initially focused on those on jobseekers' allowance and on incapacity benefit, with a guarantee that anyone transferring to the new credit will not lose money. The scheme, designed to remove disincentives to work, will have an upfront cost.
Cameron confirmed that a deal had been struck between Osborne and Duncan Smith on a "refreshingly radical" plan for welfare reform, but the decade-long timescale gives the Treasury time to see whether the scheme is workable.
In his speech Osborne will also seek to counter Labour leader Ed Miliband's accusation that the coalition has a pessimistic vision of Britain's future and is using the deficit as a cover for cuts. He will insist his aim is to build "a hopeful, united and prosperous country". "You don't get to chose the times you live in," he will say. "But you do get to choose how you live in them. And just over the horizon lies the Britain we are trying to build."
His priority in the spending review will be to support growth through investment in transport schemes, medical research and communication networks. In an interview with the Guardian tomorrow the transport secretary, Philip Hammond, reveals an extra £800m of public money will be pumped into Britain's high-speed rail network.
Osborne will also list a string of announcements in the spending review that will please Liberal Democrat colleagues in the coalition, including public funding for green investment, and carbon capture and storage "so we reap the financial rewards of the green energy revolution".
He will also promise to press ahead with a pupil premium so "the poorest in our country have access to the kind of education only available to the best".
He will defend the public service reforms, saying: "We saw over the last 10 years that more money without reform was a recipe for failure. Less money without reform would be a recipe for disaster." He said changing the way services such as education, health and the police work "is no longer a luxury; it has become a necessity."
In the other crucial conflict in the spending round – defence – supporters of the defence secretary, Liam Fox, were claiming he was making progress in resisting some of the Treasury's demands on his budget.
Cameron promised not to take "risks" with Britain's defences, insisting he was pro-defence. Fox last week wrote privately to the PM warning that "draconian" reductions being demanded by the Treasury in his department would have "grave consequences" for the armed forces. Source
